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1/25/2010 After Massachusetts, Wisconsin partisans list November 'targets' By Steve Walters The column below reflects the views of the author, and these opinions are neither endorsed nor supported by WisOpinion.com. 
Walters It's impossible to say what -- if any -- election results there will be in Wisconsin after one special U.S. Senate vote in Massachusetts. Anything can -- and, in politics, usually does -- happen in 10 months, the period before the first Wisconsin voter casts a general election ballot. The 2008 national election was a Democratic "cycle," since it elected Obama, and gave Democrats control of both Congress and the Wisconsin Legislature. Wisconsin Democrats also gained control of the state Senate and made a lot of headway in the Assembly in 2006, another up Democratic cycle. For now, political pros say the upset victory of Republican U.S. Sen.-elect Scott Brown, who will fill the seat that Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy held for 47 years, is the biggest signal yet that we're now in a GOP cycle. State Democratic Chairman Mike Tate told reporters Wednesday that Democrats are "fighting a headwind" after Brown's victory. But, Tate insisted, it doesn't signal that Republicans will take control of either house of the Legislature. The Massachusetts U.S. Senate vote is a "pretty far cry" from the support that voters in Eau Claire, Whitewater and Door County will give Democratic legislative candidates on Nov. 2, Tate predicted. Privately, Republican legislative leaders say, unlike other election years, qualified GOP candidates are calling them up, offering to run against Democratic lawmakers. That's a very good sign, Republican leaders add. On Nov. 2, 116 of the 132 seats in the Wisconsin Legislature will be filled. But only about 15 of those elections will determine control of both Assembly and Senate. Now, Democrats control the Assembly, 52-46, with one independent -- Rep. Jeff Wood of Chippewa Falls -- who has said he won't run again. Democrats control the Senate, 18-15. Here are the races the pros say to watch between now and Nov. 2: *Open seats, because they offer parties the best chance to make gains: Wood's 67th Assembly District leans Republican, as does the 52nd Assembly District open because of the retirement of Republican Rep. John Townsend, of Fond du Lac. But the decision of Republican Rep. Brett Davis, of Oregon, to run for lieutenant governor, means his 80th District could be won by a Democrat. The retirement of Republican Sen. Alan Lasee, of De Pere, could make the fight to replace him a toss-up, since his 1st Senate District voted for Obama in November 2008 -- a vote that outraged Lasee. In a WisconsinEye interview Lasee conceded that, in a big-spending race, his changing district could be won by a Democrat. *Assembly Democrats: First-term Reps. Ted Zigmunt (2nd District), of Francis Creek, and Mark Radcliffe (92nd District), of Black River Falls, won with only 52 percent and 53 percent of the 2008 vote, respectively. Rep. Kim Hixson, of Whitewater, won a second term in 2008 by only 722 votes in the 43rd District. First-term Rep. Kristin Dexter, of Eau Claire, won by even fewer votes -- 272 -- in the 68th District. *Assembly Republicans: Rep. Mary Williams, of Medford, remains the top GOP target of Democrats, who wonder how she survives in the Democrat-leaning 87th District, winning by only 232 votes last time. Democrats also are expected to try to take out first-term Rep. Keith Ripp, of Lodi, who won in the 47th District seat by 23 votes and only after a recount. Democrats also covet the 96th District seat of Rep. Lee Nerison, of Westby, who won with 51 percent of the vote in 2008. *Senate Democrats: The biggest, and probably most expensive fight, will be between first-term Democratic Sen. Jim Sullivan, and Republican Rep. Leah Vukmir, in the 5th Senate District. Both candidates live in Wauwatosa. First-term Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, of Alma, won the 31st District in 2006 with only 51 pecent of the vote and this year is being challenged by Republican Ed Thompson. He's the mayor of Tomah, a 2002 independent candidate for governor and the brother of four-term Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson. Also finishing his first term is Sen. Pat Kreitlow of Eau Claire, who won by only 50.8 percent of the 23rd District vote in 2006 but is thought to be in better shape than Vinehout. Sen. John Lehman, of Racine, is also finishing his first term, but won with 53 percent of the vote in the 21st District four years ago. Republicans are lining up to challenge Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker, of Weston, but no Senate majority leader has been tossed out of office in a general election since 1990, when Joe Strohl, the Racine Democrat, went down. (Then-Senate Majority Leader Mary Panzer lost in a Republican primary to Sen. Glenn Grothman in 2004.) *Senate Republicans: Political pros say the GOP has fewer at-risk incumbents this year. GOP senators up for re-election, and the percentages of the votes they got in 2006 contested elections are Sen. Dale Schultz (17th District), of Richland Center, 54 percent; Joe Leibham (9th District), of Sheboygan, 59 percent; and Neal Kedzie (11th District), of Elkhorn, and Ted Kanavas (33rd District), of Brookfield, who both got 67 percent of vote in 2006. Despite the landscape tilting to the GOP, some election-watchers still shrug off the victory predictions of Republican legislative leaders. After all, there's 10 months before those elections. Instead, remember what the late U.S. House Speaker Thomas "Tip" O'Neill, another Massachusetts pol, noted: "All politics is local." --Walters, a senior producer at WisconsinEye, is the former Capitol bureau chief of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. |
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