"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!" is the well-known line from the "Wizard of Oz."
This appears to be the strategy of the McCain campaign and other Republican strategists in their efforts to dangle "character" issues in front of voters -- any desperate attempt in order to not have to talk about the issue that matters most to voters today -- and that is the economy.
Democrats in the state Assembly have pulled together an incredibly energetic and well-funded campaign organization to build on their eight-seat pickup in 2006. Nationally, people are trusting Democrats to fix the economy by a wide margin. Economic worries create an even clearer roadmap for Democrats to take the Assembly in Wisconsin.
As the Wall Street earthquake continues and we start to feel the full force of the shockwaves in the Midwest, voters are looking not only for change -- and they clearly are -- they are looking for leaders committed to energy independence, building opportunities for better jobs, and standing up for consumers who are paying through the nose for health care and gas. All of these trends favor the Democrats in the state Assembly races.
The call for change clearly favors the Assembly Democrats. The Republicans have controlled the Assembly since 1994 and have obviously lost their steam since the Gingrich-Jensen era. They are still using that old and now discredited "hands off the marketplace at all costs" playbook when every day the news has another story about bank collapses, eight-figure bonuses for executives and six figure corporate parties.
They had no clear agenda during the session and have no compelling agenda during this campaign season. Which might explain why they had the fewest number of session days of any legislative body in America in 2007.
And on the few days the Republicans met, they voted against expanding jobs linked to the technology for energy independence, voted against support for worker training and voted against new protections against price gouging.
And at a time when Wisconsinites are paying some of the highest health care costs in the country and nearly half a million people are going without insurance, when that anxiety is heightened by people losing their jobs and health insurance at GM in Janesville, New Page in Kimberly and Midwest Airlines in Milwaukee, Democrats have been proposing solutions and the Republicans have been selling nothing but fear. Their biggest accomplishment on health care reform was passing a proposed constitutional amendment forbidding comprehensive health care reform.
The Assembly Democrats have made clear that they will step up for people who need the economy to work better for them. With Democrats in charge, the Assembly can pass economic measures that make sense for middle-class families and that the Republicans blocked during the last session. Voters find Democrats' commitment to lowering health care costs and covering people left behind by the health care system credible and compelling.
The Republicans will fall back on their Karl Rovian scare tactics in one last ditch effort to make this election about fear rather than hope. And, as another favorite movie line of mine goes, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride." between now and November 4th.
On Election Day, voters in Wisconsin will be asking themselves, "who is on my side?" During these tough economic times, that answer will clearly be the Democrats.
-- Rogers is executive vice president of the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO.
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Recent national economic and political trends have not changed the landscape for control of the state Assembly. Unless the political environment in Wisconsin changes dramatically in the next few weeks the GOP is still favored to maintain their majority in the Assembly.
Obama has clearly benefited from the economic crisis and voter dissatisfaction with the Bush administration. If the election were held today Obama would win Wisconsin albeit by a smaller margin than many think. Obama would also win the Electoral College in a landslide. Thankfully, the election is not today.
Don’t forget, some polling showed Al Gore with as much as an 11-point lead nationally on George W. Bush at this point in 2000 and we all know how that race turned out.
There are several reasons why a potential Obama win in Wisconsin will have little, or no, impact on Assembly races:
*Obama won’t win in Wisconsin by a large margin;
*Obama’s personal popularity is not transferable to other candidates;
*Bush isn’t in charge in Wisconsin – a Democrat is;
*And many Democrats are not well positioned on the key issues voters care about in Wisconsin.
Want proof?
Al Gore and John Kerry won Wisconsin in 2000 and 2004, but the Assembly GOP actually picked up seats in both of those election cycles. In other words, a Democratic presidential win meant nothing to Democratic candidates down ballot.
Even if Wisconsin voters like the guy at the top they won’t necessarily vote lockstep for candidates of the same party. Tommy Thompson was very popular in 1988, 1990 and 1992, but the GOP lost incumbents in two out of three of those cycles.
Wisconsin has had a Democratic governor for the past six years. Like it or not, the guy at the top gets most of the credit in good economic times and most of the blame in poor economic times. As a result, Democratic Assembly candidates will have a difficult time blaming Bush for all the economic problems we are facing in Wisconsin.
The top state issues this cycle are the economy, jobs and taxes. Wisconsin Republicans are well positioned on those issues. But Republicans must run aggressive campaigns focusing on the positive job creating and tax cutting initiatives they have advanced to improve Wisconsin’s economy. They must also remind voters of the negative consequences of costly tax increase proposals offered by Democrats. If they don’t then they are sitting ducks this fall.
Another problem for Assembly Democratic candidates is the generic ballot for the state Legislature is down to a 1-point advantage for Democrats, according to the recent Big Ten poll conducted by the University of Wisconsin. That means Wisconsin voters are not predisposed to vote Democratic this year for the state Legislature. If the generic ballot gap widens for Democrats then it could have an impact on the number of seats they pick up.
Let’s face it, McCain needs an “October surprise” to turn the tables on Obama and regain the momentum he had after the GOP convention. Fortunately, that may not be necessary for the GOP to maintain control of the Assembly.
-- McCoshen is senior vice president of the lobbying firm Capitol Consultants and served as Commerce secretary under former GOP. Gov. Tommy Thompson.
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