There's a reason we call independents "swing voters." It's because at the end of the day, they're the ones who swing elections. Expect this year to be no different. And, I believe we can expect those swing voters to break for Obama.
This year, there may be more voters in Wisconsin who are now identifying themselves as independent, because as I mentioned in last week's "Battleground Banter", the Republican brand has taken such a hit that many moderate Republicans are too fed up to even identify themselves as such.
There is also the fact that during the primary season, John McCain struggled among independent voters. Exit polling showed 47 percent of McCain's backers in Wisconsin's GOP primary identified themselves as independents; 64 percent of Barack Obama voters in the Dem primary said they were independents.
Ironically, a big part of the reason this question is being raised this week is also a big part of why we can expect independent voters to vote for Obama in November.
John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate has no doubt riled up the bases. You can see the enthusiasm in the big crowds at McCain-Palin events (though still not at McCain's solo events). And, you can see it in the hundreds of thousands of new donors who have decided to own a piece of Senator Obama's campaign for change.
As the noise dies down and the dust settles though, it is clear that it was not a choice that is bringing in new voters. Quite the opposite, it has confirmed the reality that whatever he once was, John McCain is no longer a maverick.
Independent voters are going to look at who is the better candidate on middle-class issues.
Sadly, it has taken a meltdown on Wall Street this week for John McCain to display yet again, just how out of touch he is with the everyday struggles of working families. McCain should be ashamed, first for saying yet again on Monday that the fundamentals of our economy are strong, and then for trying to cover up his gaffe by saying what he really meant is American workers are the "fundamentals of our economy" and they're the "most productive and most innovative."
Here's the bottom line: John McCain has one of the worst voting records for middle-class working families.
With voter turnout expected to surpass 2004's 73 percent mark, it's hard to imagine Wisconsinites, independent or otherwise, will fall for this McCain chicanery.
After weeks of banter, several waves of excitement in either direction, and countless hours of breathless opinionating from the talking heads, it's actually amazing how little has changed.
Independent voters are still going to decide this race, and they're still going to decide it for Obama.
-- Rogers is executive vice president of the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO.
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The 2004 presidential election was a base vs. base election. President George W. Bush did a better job than John Kerry of identifying his base voters and getting them to the polls. In fact, there were more than 100,000 new culturally conservative voters in Ohio that basically decided the race.
The 2008 presidential race will not be a base vs. base election. A large portion of voters dislike President Bush, which has hurt the GOP brand. But even more voters dislike the Democratic Congress, which is suppressing what should be a landslide Democratic victory. As a result, more voters are identifying themselves as independent than ever before.
According to a recent statewide survey, a plurality of Wisconsin voters (39 percent) identified themselves as independents rather than Democrats or Republicans. Without question this block of voters will decide the results nationally and in Wisconsin from president down to state Assembly.
A few months ago the notion of a base vs. base election had Democrats dreaming of a landslide victory and Republicans hoping for better results in 2010. Obama’s rejection of Hillary Clinton as his running mate and McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin changed all that.
The Democratic base is not united behind Obama. This week a top Hillary fundraiser and member of the DNC Platform Committee, Lynn Forester de Rothschild, announced she was endorsing the McCain-Palin ticket because “McCain is more likely to work with both parties to solve the nation’s problems.” That is a stunning indictment of Obama.
The GOP base is totally united behind McCain-Palin. The Palin selection energized conservative and culturally conservative voters like nobody could have imagined. It is possible there will be hundreds of thousands of new culturally conservative voters nationwide this year that most polls will not pick up.
The reality is independent voters want doers and not talkers. They want a leader that can work with both sides to get the job done. John McCain fits that description. A new Rasmussen poll taken this week in Wisconsin gave McCain a two-point advantage with independent voters, 45 percent to 43 percent.
The horserace in Wisconsin is still within the margin of error. The candidate who produces the most credible plan to rebuild the economy will likely win this race as nearly half of likely voters say the economy is the most important issue.
While Obama is having lavish fundraisers with the Hollywood rich and famous during the current economic crisis McCain is busy talking to working people in Ohio and Michigan. Guess which strategy plays better with swing voters. Plus, the Democratic chairman of the House Tax Committee, Charles Rangel, is now under investigation for tax fraud. This further complicates Obama’s economic message because it has diminished Democrats' credibility on the issue.
The presidential and vice-presidential debates over the next four weeks are also critically important for both sides, especially with independent voters. If McCain can highlight Obama’s inexperience and if Palin can hold her own against Biden then the only thing stopping McCain from winning is some big “October surprise."
-- McCoshen is senior vice president of the lobbying firm Capitol Consultants and served as Commerce secretary under former GOP. Gov. Tommy Thompson.
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