In 2008, the Assembly Democrats are positioned to regain the majority for the first time since 1994. The Democrats have a 52-47 deficit after winning eight seats and holding onto a hotly contested open seat in 2006. The Democrats won an across-the-board victory in 2006, winning in every part of the state, both urban and rural, by employing a strategy to recruit quality candidates. Candidates were recruited in 86 of the 99 Assembly seats by capitalizing on a growing frustration with President Bush and the GOP. The eight seats were the most won by the Democrats since 1970 and their only gains in the statehouse since 1990.
Democrats came within 625 votes of taking the majority in 2006. Seven candidates received 48 percent of the vote or greater and another seven received greater than 45 percent. After too many years of an extreme agenda, the pendulum is starting to swing to favor those candidates that put the interests of working families first over big corporate special interests.
This is good news for Democrats and bodes well for November. There are 15 Assembly seats currently held by Republicans which have an average Democratic performance of 50 percent or higher. In fact, three districts have over 55 percent Democratic performance.
The issue climate is undoubtedly in the Democrats' favor. Pocketbook issues are at the absolute top of the priorities list for Wisconsinites. Job loss, stagnating wages, foreclosures, outsourcing and the skyrocketing costs of health care are just part of the package that has four in five Americans saying the country is on the wrong track. In order to turn around the country and improve our state, we need real solutions.
Unfortunately for Republicans, belief in the power of the market, tax cuts for the wealthy and big business and health care schemes which do nothing to reduce costs or guarantee coverage aren't selling these days. The people know we need substantial changes -- and they blame the Republicans for the lack of progress.
The Republican brand is at an all-time low. The historically-unpopular George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are considered such poison that they failed to even attend the Republican National Convention last week, something that would have been unthinkable just a year or so ago. Republicans in swing districts are running scared from being called Republican and the few actual moderates, like Rep. Jeff Wood in Chippewa Falls or Rep. Terry Musser from western Wisconsin are either leaving the party or leaving the Legislature.
Even many who support John McCain or are undecided, are refusing to identify themselves as Republicans. More young people than ever are coming out to vote. Young people meaning those who have gotten out of college and are surrounded by a mountain of student loan debt and fewer job opportunities. These 22- to 30-year-olds, who many times are not included in polling because they only have cell phones, are going to come out huge, and the excitement of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign and the mantra of change is going to make them Democratic voters up and down the ticket.
Finally, the all-important fundraising numbers. Assembly Democrats have raised more money than ever, giving their candidates the resources needed to set up impressive campaign operations.
And remember, the Democrats only need three seats.
-- Rogers is executive vice president of the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO.
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It wasn’t long ago many pundits thought the Democrats would take back the state Assembly for the first time since 1994. They thought Barack Obama would win Wisconsin by a large margin and create a “wave” down-ballot to elect more Democrats to the state house in 2008.
Not so fast.
Recent polls in Wisconsin suggest the race between Obama and John McCain is essentially tied. The same polls show the generic ballot gap is closing quickly.
More Wisconsin voters are now identifying themselves as independents rather than Democrats or Republicans. All new national polls have McCain ahead by as many as 10 points among independent voters.
So what happened to change the political landscape so quickly? Sarah Palin. She fired up the GOP base, and her record of reform in Alaska has also gained substantial support from Independent voters. Governor Palin also helped McCain gain a 12-point advantage among white women.
The Obama campaign has been “off message” since Palin was picked and their poll numbers prove it. Obama will regret not picking Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Even Joe Biden said this week, “Hillary probably would have been a better pick than me.”
The bottom line is there will not be an Obama wave in Wisconsin this year so Democrats will have to earn each additional Assembly seat on their own.
It is true 2008 will be the best opportunity for Democrats to gain control of the Assembly since they lost it 14 years ago. There are several reasons for this; Democrats only need to pick up three seats to capture the majority, Democrats have better candidates than past elections and Democrats are far better funded than they have been in the past.
But Republicans still have issues on their side. All recent polls suggest the top two issues in legislative races this year are jobs and the economy and taxes and spending. Republicans can easily play offense on both issues and they have enough ammunition to force Democrats to play defense. Any winning campaign is playing more offense than defense.
Wisconsin voters are nervous about their pocketbooks. Voters know Wisconsin needs more jobs and they know they can’t afford any tax increases. Republicans have a strong agenda to create more jobs, and a solid record of fighting of tax increases supported by Democrats.
Control of the Assembly will come down to a dozen races. Here is a listing of the key Assembly races and my current prediction:
Seat -- Incumbent -- Current Prediction
AD 29 -- Murtha (R) -- Lean Republican
AD 37 -- Jorgenson (D) -- Lean Democrat
AD 43 -- Hixson (D) -- Lean Republican
AD 47 -- Open (R) -- Toss-up
AD 49 -- Garthwaite (D) -- Toss-up
AD 67 -- Wood (I) -- Lean Republican
AD 68 -- Moulton (R) -- Lean Republican
AD 80 -- Davis (R) -- Lean Republican
AD 88 -- Soletski (D) -- Lean Democrat
AD 91 -- Open (D) -- Toss-up
AD 92 -- Open (R) -- Lean Republican
AD 96 -- Nerison (R) -- Lean Republican
At this point Republicans are likely to maintain their Assembly majority in 2008.
-- McCoshen is senior vice president of the lobbying firm Capitol Consultants and served as Commerce secretary under former GOP. Gov. Tommy Thompson.
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