Senate races to watch
The Senate Democrats are going to pick up seats in this election. The only question is how many will they pick up? I think they will get the majority. I just need to see more before I decide how many total seats they will have next session.
This is the year that the Republicans have to play defense. They can try to spin people all day that they are going to go after Senators Bob Jauch and Russ Decker, but no one should buy it. Rather, most of their resources will go to protecting five seats that are definitely in play and a couple more that could be if things go insanely well.
The top three races to watch are SD 21, SD 23 and SD 9. Two of these seats (SD 21 and SD 9) flipped from the Democrat column to the Republican column in 2002. The other two seats that are definitely in play this year are SD 5 and SD 31. One of these seats (SD 31) flipped from the D column to the R column last time around. There are also two seats that I think will fun to watch and just might develop into something if all the stars line up correctly and they are SD 17 and SD 1.
The top three races
SD 21 - Rep. John Lehman versus Racine County Executive Bill McReynolds. This will the be the biggest battle this year in the senate. Any time there is an open seat the race is more heated and this seat combines that with two well-known faces and a swing district.
McReynolds is posting some big fundraising dollars but Lehman is doing well fundraising as well. And while raising a lot of money helps win an election, ask Senator Dave Hansen's first opponent if having more money assures victory. Lehman is well liked and keep in mind how many sitting state representatives have gotten beat when running for state senate. It almost always takes another state representative to beat them.
SD 23 - Pat Kreitlow versus Senator Dave Zien. Zien is a stronger campaigner but I think he has finally met his match in Kreitlow. Kreitlow has huge name recognition going into the race and the 'rebel' image from Zien has worn pretty thin since Zien was elected to the Assembly back when I was in high school. Zien's votes are way out of line for a district that is trending Democratic as well. It split about 50/50 on the 2004 election for president and went for Senator Feingold with 56 percent.
SD 9 - Jamie Aulik versus Senator Joe Leibham. One would think that if a senator represented a swing area and won by only a handful of votes, s/he would have a moderate voting record. But then you don't know Leibham. He doesn't seem to care what his district thinks. His voting record is way out of whack for a district that pretty much split down the middle for both the Kerry/Bush and Feingold/Michels elections. The Democrats have also found an impressive candidate in Aulik that Leibham must be scared of since he recently tried to get a local printer to stop printing lit for Aulik.
Two other races that Dems could definitely take
SD 5 - Senator Tom Reynolds versus Jim Sullivan. The numbers in this seat don't immediately suggest that this seat is play but all you have to do is get to know the incumbent a little better before (click on all three words to catch all the fun) you realize why this seat can definitely be snatched up for the Democrat column. Sullivan is a current Wauwatosa City Alderman so he has a base to build from and will be a strong campaigner. The district also went for Senator Feingold with 52.2 percent in 2004 which means they will choose a Democrat over a Republican that is too conservative. I'm guessing there are a lot of Republicans in this district that are suffering from buyers remorse with Reynolds that will happily vote for an alternative.
SD 31 - Kathleen Vinehout/Chris Danou versus Senator Ron Brown. The Democrats have two good candidates in this primary but I think Vinehout will win. She is a farmer that has been very active in her community so she is a pretty well-known activist in the area. Brown will be tougher to beat than some of the other incumbents, but his voting record doesn't match up with his district. He has been voting like a conservative Republican and his district went for Kerry with 53 percent and for Feingold with a whopping 58.1 percent. One of these things is not like the other and it has to go.
Two seats that could be interesting
SD 17 - John Simonson versus Senator Dale Shultz. There is one thing Shultz should be very worried about when it comes to his district. It is trending Democratic. It went for Kerry over Bush 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent and for Feingold with 54.4 percent in 2004. Shultz also had a few stumbles this year that showed he has a hard time balancing being a senator for his own district and trying to run his caucus. A race at home could really knock him off of his game. Simonson is retired so he has time to devote to the election as well as the knowledge and experiences to hit the ground running.
SD 1 - Charlie Most versus Senator Alan Lasee. Yes, this district is pretty solid for the Republicans so it would be tough to take this seat. However, Most has a lot of community experience and I wonder how impressed the residents of this district are with the service they are getting. Lasee is a politician bent on getting one thing accomplished - the death penalty. He was elected to state government when I was three years old (1974) and all he has to show for the issue that occupies him the most is a resolution arranging a non-binding vote that just passed this year. Thirty-two years and one non-binding vote. Stellar work. Perhaps his district wants more.
Races Republicans say they are playing offense on
SD 25 - Despite the pink signs and rhetoric from the Republicans, Shirley Riedmann is unlikely to beat Senator Bob Jauch (D-Poplar). The district went for U.S. Senator John Kerry by about 12,000 votes in 2004.
SD 29 - The fact that the Republicans could not find anyone but Jimmy Boy Edming to run against Senator Russ Decker (D-Schofield) speaks volumes about the incumbent's popularity. Edming ran against Decker last time and got beat 38,779 to 18,201. Look for similar numbers this time.
That's how I see it at this point. I'll update this list as time goes on and we see a little more of the campaigns in action. I'll also pick apart each race in more detail soon.
4 Comments:
SD 23 - This district is not trending Democratic. This area was all Democratic in the Senate and the Assembly 15 years ago, it has flipped entirely since then. There used to be a strong union presence on Eau Claire's north side that began fading when Uniroyal shut down and is pretty much gone today.
The thing to watch is the outside spending. WMC began running ads for Zien very, very early. If that is what their polling is telling them it is not a good sign for Zien. But their record over the last few years has been amazing here. When they determine a Democrat is vulnerable they dump money into the race and they have never failed.
What Zien has going for him is the 3rd party spending, the conservative trend of this district, and his tireless campaign style.
What Kreitlow has going for him is name recognition and the fact that Zien is a retard. This is one area where shaking a lot of hands works against him because it's pretty obvious he's a retard. If I had time it'd be interesting to go through the financial reports and look for Republicans that are sending money to Kreitlow by laundering it through PACs so their name doesn't show up. There is no shortage of Republicans that are embarrassed that they are represented by a retard.
When I watched the webcast interview with Schultz he talked about some of Zien's accomplishments and it was all stuff I had never heard of or didn't associate with Zien or had to freakin' google to figure out what he was even talking about. So I think he'll have a hard time making the case that he's an effective legislator, which is not surprising since he's a retard.
He's a retard and I think it will be close but he will hang on. I am basing that on WMC's record of never, ever losing a targeted seat in this part of the state.
SD 31 - This one is over, Brown is toast.
First some history. This was a Democratic seat since forever but one of the Dems Chvala was shaking people down for was Rod Moen. This came out at a bad time for Moen, a lot of money flowed into the race just before the election and Brown knocked him off in a tight race.
Vinehout will win the primary. What she has going for her is that this is not a swing district, it went pretty clearly for Kerry and Feingold as you note. She is a very engaging speaker which is what gives her the edge over Danou and will serve her well against Brown.
Brown porked WMC on TABOR and it appears they are going to make an example of him. And while we are talking about porking, one of the things Brown is known for is sponsoring legislation to pork the public employee unions and if any of them voted for the ex-fire chief last time they sure won't this time. Given the small margin he's got to work with I'd put this one in the 'D' column already.
I've heard people say that WMC is going to "make an example" of Senator Brown but I just don't buy it. They are not going to lose a Republican seat to make a point. They are just not that dumb.
Yeah, if you are going to eat one of your own you should do it in the primary. If his district flips it will stay flipped and be gone.
What I'm trying to resolve is the big radio buy they did in June for Zien with nothing for Brown and both of them in the same media market and with similar poll numbers. The only way I can do that is if the poll numbers are not similar ie Zien is close and Brown is gone. If there is one characteristic to their spending it is that they do not back losers. But I'm just not sure I can buy into that scenario.
Also, the only public numbers from WMC's polling on individual legislators are Brown's. Just chance?
If I am wrong it's what you get for listening to a butthead.
Post a Comment
<< Home