Tide turning on marriage, civil union vote

Wisconsin is split down the middle on a proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriages and civil unions, a new WisPolitics poll indicates.

It is entirely possible that conservatives outsmarted themselves by putting it on the November ballot, thinking it would tilt the governor's race toward Mark Green. It may, in fact, prompt heavy turnout in Madison and other liberal-leaning parts of the state, and could help defeat Green.

And the second sentence -- the overkill banning civil unions -- may be what kills the amendment. It is muddy enough that many believe it will apply to all sorts of domestic partnerships, not just the gays it is intended to discriminate against.

It's months away, of course, and the campaign hasn't really begun, but there is at least a chance that Wisconsin will become the first state to reject an anti-gay referendum.

One caveat: The WisPolitics poll, for some reason, did not screen for likely voters, which would be a much more reliable indicator of what might happen.