WisPolitics Budget Blog

Poll Results

From a political operative’s perspective, WPRI’s poll of the Wisconsin governor’s race contained nothing new.

Both Republican campaign managers, Bruce Pfaff for Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and Mark Graul for Congressman Mark Green, summed-up the poll stating the obvious;

Two 3rd party polls have confirmed Governor Doyle’s overall vulnerability; and,
Governor Doyle’s approval rating has not moved up from 46% since becoming governor.

(Steve Walter's article)

It’s the lobbyist community and the county party types that get all goosey every time a poll is released. And the data will also serve as text for the next mail drop to house files and prospecting lists, requesting another $25, $50, or $100 donation to support the favorite Republican and the only candidate that polls say can beat Jim Doyle.

But beyond measuring the horserace, public polls accomplish nothing of value.

Real value is gained from the campaigns’ private polls. And when combined with regional focus groups, internal public opinion research will drive every spending decision and every public statement the public hears from a campaign.

UPDATE:
It appears Walker is stronger in his geographic base (Milw ADI) than Green is in his geographic base (Green Bay ADI). Given the population density is Southeast, Walker is still a viable nominee, however, Green appears to be running a better statewide operation.

If the 2004 Republican Primary for the U.S. Senate serves as a lesson, then Tim Michels is the benchmark; Michels conducted a broad statewide campaign as Russ Darrow regionalized himself as a Milwaukee car dealer, and Bob Welch carried...Redgranite.